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| Construction and validation of a predictive model for nausea and vomiting risk in cancer chemotherapy patients |
| Wang Jingjing, Tang Ling |
| Department of Oncology Yancheng Third People's Hospital Yancheng 224001 Jiangsu China |
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Abstract Objective To construct a predictive model for nausea and vomiting in tumor patients undergoing chemotherapy and to
verify the predictive effect of the model. Method The clinical data of 322 tumor patients who received chemotherapy in Yancheng Third
People's Hospital from May 2022 to May 2024 were collected for retrospective analysis. A total of 164 patients receiving chemotherapy
in the hospital from May 2022 to June 2023 were selected as the modeling group and 158 patients receiving chemotherapy from July
2023 to May 2024 were selected as the validation group. Clinical data of patients were collected for retrospective analysis. Logistic
regression was applied to establish the risk prediction model of nausea and vomiting in tumor chemotherapy patients receiver operating
characteristic ROC curve was applied to evaluate the predictive effect of the model Hosmer-Lemeshow H-L was applied to test
the goodness of fit of the model. Result In this study 92 of 164 patients had nausea and vomiting the incidence rate was 56. 10%
Univariate analysis showed that age gender depression tumor primary site chemotherapy regimen tumor metastasis chemotherapy
cycle and KPS score were statistically different between tumor chemotherapy patients with and without nausea and vomiting P <
0. 05 multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age OR = 4. 555 gender OR = 4. 316 chemotherapy regimen OR =
9. 473 tumor metastasis OR= 30. 379 chemotherapy cycle OR= 3. 823 KPS score OR= 5. 623 was a risk factor affecting the
occurrence of nausea and vomiting P<0. 05 . The slopes of the calibration curves for both the modeling group and the validation group
were close to 1. H-L test modeling group χ
2 = 7. 884 P = 0. 445 validation group χ
2 = 7. 356 P = 0. 499. The results of the ROC
curve showed that the area under the ROC curve of the modeling group was 0. 919 and the sensitivity and specificity were 85. 87% and
90. 28% respectively the area under the ROC curve of the validation group was 0. 892 and the sensitivity and specificity were
90. 22% and 80. 56% respectively. Conclusion Age gender chemotherapy regimen tumor metastasis chemotherapy cycle and KPS
score are all risk factors for nausea and vomiting in tumor chemotherapy patients. The constructed prediction model has good
discrimination and validity and can provide a reference for the selection of treatment options for clinical tumor chemotherapy
patients.
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