Establishment of a risk prediction model for nutritional status deterioration in patients with non-small cell lung cancer during targeted therapy

Shen Xiangwei; Ma Weiping; Qiang Caoxia; Lu Yanfei; Meng Yun; Zhang Xiaodong

doi:10.16689/j.cnki.cn11-9349/r.2026.03.009

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Electronic Journal of Metabolism and Nutrition of Cancer ›› 2026, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3) : 383-390. DOI: 10.16689/j.cnki.cn11-9349/r.2026.03.009

Original Articles

Establishment of a risk prediction model for nutritional status deterioration in patients with non-small cell lung cancer during targeted therapy

¹Shen Xiangwei, ¹Ma Weiping, ²Qiang Caoxia, ³Lu Yanfei, ¹Meng Yun, ¹Zhang Xiaodong

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Abstract

Objective To explore the risk factors for the deterioration of nutritional status in patients with non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC), construct a nomogram prediction model and verify its predictive value. Method Convenience sampling was used to select 312 lung cancer patients admitted to the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Nantong University from June 2019 to June 2025. The patients were divided into a modeling group (212 cases) and a validation group (100 cases) at a 7:3 ratio. With the occurrence of nutritional deterioration as the dependent variable, univariate analysis was performed on the modeling group to screen for statistically significant variables, which were then included in a multivariate binary Logistic regression to develop a nomogram model for predicting nutritional deterioration, and the model was validated using the validation group. Result In the modeling group, 212 patients with NSCLC were obtained, and 75 of them experienced deterioration of nutritional status (35.38%). Multivariate results age (OR=1.982), comorbidity index (OR=1.640), pre-existing digestive system diseases (OR=1.694), poor self-assessed nutritional intake (OR=1.507), TNF-α (OR=2.059), and IL-6 (OR=2.342) became risk factors for the deterioration of nutritional status in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (P < 0.05). Body mass index(BMI)of 18.5-24.0 kg/m² (OR=0.787)/BMI > 24.0 kg/m² (OR=0.739) became a protective factor for the deterioration of nutritional status in patients with NSCLC (P < 0.05). Nomogram prediction model logit (P)=2.538+0.684 (age) +0.495 (comorbidity index) +0.527K (pre-existing digestive system diseases) + (-0.239) K (BMI between 18.5 and 24.0 kg/m²) + (-0.239) K (BMI>24.0 kg/m²) +0.410K (self-assessed nutritional intake) +0.722 (TNF-α) +0.851 (IL-6). The analysis results of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve showed that the AUC of the modeling group and the validation group was 0.82 (95%CI was 0.78-0.86) and 0.78, respectively, and the (95%CI was 0.72-0.83) . The calibration curve is close to the reference curve, and the decision analysis curve shows that the model's decisions can benefit patients. Conclusion The occurrence of nutritional deterioration in patients with NSCLC is related to the patients' age, comorbidity index, pre-existing digestive system diseases, body mass index, self-rated nutritional intake, TNF-α and IL-6. Based on the above indicators, a nomogram prediction model is constructed, which can better predict the occurrence of nutritional deterioration in patients with NSCLC. It can provide a basis for early prevention of deterioration in clinical nutritional status.

Key words

Non-small cell lung cancer / Targeted therapy / Nutritional deterioration / Risk prediction / Nomogram

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Shen Xiangwei, Ma Weiping, Qiang Caoxia, Lu Yanfei, Meng Yun, Zhang Xiaodong. Establishment of a risk prediction model for nutritional status deterioration in patients with non-small cell lung cancer during targeted therapy[J]. Electronic Journal of Metabolism and Nutrition of Cancer. 2026, 13(3): 383-390 https://doi.org/10.16689/j.cnki.cn11-9349/r.2026.03.009

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